Posted on March 25th, 2009
I want to calculate my odds of making it to a world series of poker event this year?
by admin in Gambling
AndyN asked:
I have a 3.45% chance of winning one of the tournaments if I can buy into 6 of those tournaments what are my chances of making it?
Alright I am not looking for a lecture of why I should stay in school and get an education because I am already doing that. I have $450 in disposable cash and I want to have a chance to go to the wsop. Just want to see my odds. I calculated it to a 20.7% chance just want to check my figures.
Absolute Today
I have a 3.45% chance of winning one of the tournaments if I can buy into 6 of those tournaments what are my chances of making it?
Alright I am not looking for a lecture of why I should stay in school and get an education because I am already doing that. I have $450 in disposable cash and I want to have a chance to go to the wsop. Just want to see my odds. I calculated it to a 20.7% chance just want to check my figures.
Absolute Today
March 28th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Absolute Today
It’s all in the cards my friend.
You have a 50:50 chance of winning in that the cards will either work in your favour or they will not.
Perhaps my inability to work out probabilities is why I have lost £300 on party poker lol.
Or maybe not, because even when I know my odds and how many outs I have my luck never kicks in when it’s really supposed to.
But sure there is always Jamie Gold. He’s a dope but incredibly lucky
March 31st, 2009 at 5:42 am
Absolute Today
Let me put it this way
I would bet against you.
why not get an education or further your education and make money the good old fashioned way: Earn it.
April 2nd, 2009 at 7:21 am
Absolute Today
I would say > 5000:1
There is some prop bets out there and even the very best pros are barely getting 100:1 that they will win any bracelet
April 3rd, 2009 at 8:47 am
Absolute Today
When you have a series of events like this, you have to calculate the odds that the event won’t happen, then subtract that from 100%.
If you have a 3.45% chance of winning each tournament, it means there is a 96.55% chance that you won’t win. The odds that you won’t win any tournament is .9655 ^ 6, or .81005.
Subtracting from 100%, this means you have about a 19% chance to win at least once.
I think what you did was just add 3.45 for each tournament (multiply by 6). In this case, it’s close because you have a small number of tournaments.
But if you played 30 tournaments, your method would give 103.5%, which is obviously not correct. It should be about 65%.